Transferring Your Property Tax Base After Age 55

Downsizing with Prop 60/90

Transferring your property tax base after age 55 – how does it work?

You want to move, but you also want to keep your property taxes low.  Fortunately there’s a solution if you or your spouse are over age 55.  Proposition 60/90 allows homeowners 55 or older to transfer their properties tax base to a principal residence of an equal or lesser value within the same County or to a few other California counties that reciprocate.  The replacement residence must be purchased within two years of the sale of your existing home.  You can buy first, and have up to two years to sell your existing property, OR you can sell first and have up to two years to buy a replacement property.

If you live in San Francisco or Marin, you can buy a property in your current County or in Alameda, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Tuolumne, or Ventura (counties may change eligibilities so check with each counties assessors office).  It’s pretty simple if you fit into the typical scenario, but there are always individual cases, so we’ve provided more details and links below.  But first, let’s look at how it typically works.

THE 4 STEPS:

1 – We can guide you, but we’ll also provide you with all the resources you need.  We’ll email all the necessary links, from the California State Board of Equalization, to the various County Assessors Offices, to the required forms.  Bottom line, before making a move, make a plan. 

2 – Sell your existing principal residence.  This is the best way to know for sure how much you can purchase a replacement property for. 

3 – Purchase a new principle residence of equal or lesser value within 2 years.  The definition of “equal of lesser value” allows you to purchase a replacement property for up to 105% of the value in the year following the sale, or up to 110% or the value within the second year following the sale. (for example, if you sell your existing principle residence for $1,000,000 you can purchase a property for up to $1,100,000 1-2 years after the sale date).  Since most people in San Francisco or Marin are selling to downsize the extra 5% or 10% usually isn’t a factor.

4 – Within 3 years of purchasing the replacement property file Board of Equalization form BOE-60-AH with the county that your replacement property was purchased.  Most people file the form much sooner than the 3 year limit so they can get the property tax rate adjusted ASAP.  If you file within the 3 years, a retroactive adjustment will be made and you will be refunded any previous overpayment of taxes.  You can file after the 3 year deadline, but then relief will only be granted beginning with the calendar year the claim was filed.

That’s it in a nutshell.  The alternative strategy is to buy first and then sell your existing residence.  That’s also common, but it’s important to make sure the property you’re purchasing is of lower value than what your existing home will sell for, otherwise you won’t be able to qualify for the tax relief. 

Below are additional links including FAQ’s at the State Board of Equalization Website, the San Francisco Assessors office and the Marin Assessors office.  Feel free to email us directly and we’re happy to provide additional information (adam@adamwattsrealty.com).

About Zumra and Adam:  

Adam and Zumra bring over 30 years of sales, marketing, and management experience, along with 20 years of local Bay Area real estate expertise. They are top producers and well respected in the industry by both agents and clients alike. 

Resources and links:

Board of Equalization Prop 60/90 Info

https://www.boe.ca.gov/proptaxes/prop60-90_55over.htm#Description

Board of Equalization Prop 60/90 FAQs

https://www.boe.ca.gov/proptaxes/prop60-90_55over.htm#FAQs

San Francisco Assessor Prop 60/90 Info

https://www.sfassessor.org/tax-savings/tax-relief/transfer-assessment-replacement-property-senior-citizens

Marin Assessor Prop 60/90 Info

https://www.marincounty.org/depts/ar/divisions/assessor/exclusions/homeowners-55-or-older

Equilibrium ahead? April 2019 Real Estate Update

The 2019 Spring Market Begins

Heading into the 2019 Market

SF Real Estate – Looking Back on 2018

Bay Area Real Estate Markets Survey

Mixed Signals in San Francisco Real Estate Market

Shifts in the San Francisco Market

Compass Real Estate

Some Shifts in San Francisco Market
New Listings & Price Reductions
Jump in SeptemberQ3 2018 Median SF House Price
up 15% Year-over-Year

October 2018 Market Report

In July 2018, Paragon Real Estate merged with Compass.

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Median SF Home Sales Prices
Quarterly & Long-Term Trends
 

Due mostly to seasonal issues, median sales prices typically drop in Q3 from Q2 peaks, and did so this year as well. The median SF house price was up 15% and the median condo price was up 4% from Q3 2017. The other Bay Area counties also saw substantial year-over-year increases in median home sales prices in Q3 2018.

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New Listings & Price Reductions

 


September is always a big month for new listings coming on market in San Francisco – typically with the highest number of the year – and this year they jumped 28% higher than in September 2017 to hit their highest point in years.


The number of price reductions in September also increased: 37% over 2017 and 18% over 2016. October is usually one of the two biggest months of the year for price reductions as sellers of unsold listings make a last attempt to grab the attention of buyers before the mid-winter slowdown begins in mid-November.



The number of active listings on the market on a given day in September was somewhat higher than last year, but a bit lower than in September 2016.



What will tell us most about where the market is heading is how buyers respond to these new listings and price reductions, and that information won’t be available until autumn’s listings have time to accept offers, and accepted offers have time to close escrow – in quantity – to give us their data. October is usually a very big month for sales in San Francisco as buyers jump on the surge of listings.

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Bay Area Statistics by County

Jumps in listings and price reductions have been common around the Bay Area, and in some counties, the changes are much more pronounced than in SF: Sonoma saw a 122% increase in price reductions amid an active inventory of listings 90% higher than in September of last year. Santa Clara County saw staggering increases, but much of that is due to the fact that inventory was incredibly, abnormally low last year, when Santa Clara was perhaps the hottest real estate market in the country.

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Days on Market, Overbidding &
Months Supply of Inventory

So far, we are not seeing significant shifts in these 3 standard measurements of market heat.

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Price Tables by Neighborhood & Bedroom Count

Below are selected excerpts from 10 pages of tables breaking down SF home sales over the past 12 months. If a field is left blank, it signifies that there weren’t enough sales for statistical analysis; if a price is asterisked, it means there were only 3 or 4 sales in the period. We are happy to provide the full collection of tables upon request.


House Sales

Condo Sales

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The Luxury Home Market

As with the general market, September is typically a very important month for new luxury home listings and October a big month for sales. For the past 3 years, October has been the biggest month of the year for luxury house sales of $3m+. Even more so than the general market, the luxury market goes into a precipitous slowdown from just before Thanksgiving to mid-late January.

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


© 2018 Compass

The Hottest Neighborhood Real Estate Markets in San Francisco

The Hottest Neighborhood Real Estate
Markets in San Francisco

All parts of the city have experienced staggering rates of

appreciation since 2011, but some neighborhoods stand out
(for a variety of different reasons)

2000 to present, different city districts experienced bubbles,
crashes and recoveries of vastly varying magnitudes

May 2018 Report

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Before discussing neighborhood values, appreciation rates and market cycles, here are 3 overview charts on the entire city market.


Citywide Home Values & Trends


On a 3-month-rolling basis, median home sales prices in San Francisco yet again hit new highs in April 2018: The median house sales price jumped $55,000 over the March price to hit $1,665,000, and the median condo sales price jumped $50,000 in April to $1,225,000 (3-month rolling sales through 4/30/18, reported by May 2). Those reflect year-over-year increases of 23% and 8% respectively. Average dollar per square foot values also reached new peak values.


San Francisco Median Home Sales Prices

San Francisco Average Dollar per Square Foot

San Francisco Home Sales Breakdown

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Highest Median House Price Appreciation Rates by Neighborhood:
Compound Annual Appreciation Percentages, 2011 – 2017


The neighborhoods and districts circled on the map below have seen compound annual appreciation rates of 12% or more over the past 6 years. As a point of comparison, the national rate over that period was about 7%, and the CPI inflation rate about 1.5%. As illustrated in the table below the map, the highest rate in San Francisco over the period was above 18%.

If the return on cash investment was calculated for purchasing with a 20% down payment (instead of paying all cash), and adjusting for closing costs (estimated at 2% on buy-side, 7% on sell side), the compound annual rate of return on the cash investment soars: A 10% annual rate of home price appreciation would then translate into an annual compound return on cash investment of just under 40%. The use of financing in homeownership is one of the reasons why it can often be such a good investment to develop household wealth over time.


Highest San Francisco Neighborhood Appreciation

SF house compound annual appreciation rates

SF Neighborhood compound annual appreciation rates

Total 6-year appreciation rates can be calculated by dividing the 2017
median house sales price by the 2011 price.


Though median home price appreciation rates throughout the city have been incredibly high by any reasonable measure, some neighborhoods have outpaced the norm. The main reason is affordability: Less expensive homes have appreciated considerably faster than more expensive homes. Also, some of the most affordable districts were hammered by foreclosure sales after the 2008 crash, which brought their sales prices down to unnatural lows by 2011 – setting the stage for dramatic recoveries. Bayview, with the most affordable houses in SF and also worst hit by the 2008-2011 distressed property crisis, has had the highest compound annual appreciation rate since that time, a staggering 18.3%, or a 6-year total rate of 174%. Other affordable neighborhoods running across the southern border of the city – such as Excelsior, Visitacion Valley, Sunnyside, Ingleside and Oceanview – also saw extremely high annual rates of 12% to 14% for similar reasons.

The dynamic in the Inner Mission was somewhat different: Its 14.7% compound annual rate of appreciation – a total of 128% over the 6 years – was because it turned into the hottest, hippest district in the city, especially among younger high-tech workers. The gentrification which had been slowly occurring for 30 years suddenly went into overdrive to catapult prices higher.

Bernal Heights – with a 13.3% compound annual rate and 111% 6-year total – is right next to the Mission on one side and to Noe Valley on another. It was perfectly situated to take advantage of the classic overflow effect for people who wanted a similar neighborhood ambiance to Noe or Eureka Valley, but could no longer afford their much higher prices. Outer Richmond was also a standout: It has the lowest house prices in the northern third of the city. And the Sunset & Parkside district is filled with mid-price 2 and 3 bedroom houses, has a variety of attractive neighborhood commercial districts, ocean or parks on 3 sides, and easy access to highways south to the peninsula. All these factors have made it into a much sought-after location to purchase a home in recent years. The market there is insanely hot now.

The most expensive neighborhoods in the city have lower, but still very high rates of appreciation. And in dollar terms, their appreciation returns are by far the highest in the city.

CONDOS: Calculating appreciation rates for SF neighborhood condo prices is an iffier process, because so many large, new condo projects have come on market, significantly impacting inventory and sales prices, and making it much more difficult to perform apples to apples comparisons. Therefore, our calculations, above and below, are performed for the entire city instead of for separate districts. It is certainly true that, due to supply and demand issues, condos have typically appreciated at somewhat lesser rates than houses, which have become the scarce commodity in SF. There has been some variation in condo appreciation rates depending on location, supply and price segment.

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Up, Down, Up: A Longer-Term Look
at SF Home Value Changes since 2000

Bubble, Crash & Recovery
by District & Price Segment


Home value appreciation in the charts below is broken down by 4 distinct time periods: 1) 2000 to peak of bubble (2006-2008, depending on price segment); 2) peak of bubble to bottom of market (typically 2011); 3) the 1st 4 years of the recovery, 2012 to 2015; and 4) 2015 to present.

House appreciation is broken down into 4 broad price segments as exemplified by the markets in 4 city regions: The least expensive segment is represented by house sales in the broad swathe of southern neighborhoods running from Bayview through Portola, Excelsior, Crocker Amazon and Outer Mission (Realtor district 10). The mid-price segment is illustrated by sales in the Sunset & Parkside district (Realtor district 2). The central Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys district (district 5) is used to represent the expensive segment; and the very expensive house segment is illustrated by the northern, old-prestige neighborhoods running from Sea Cliff, Lake Street & Jordan Park through Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and Marina to Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills (which are the very affluent parts of 3 different Realtor districts).

These areas were used because of their quantity of sales and the relative homogeneity of values within them. For condos, appreciation rates were calculated on the entire SF condo market. The calculations below were made by averaging both median sales price and average dollar per square foot appreciation rates. Present values are based on sales occurring in Q4 2017 and Q1 2018.


2000 to Peak of Bubble,
Crash to Bottom of Market


Less expensive homes saw by far the biggest bubbles (2000 to 2006-2008) and crashes (2008-2011), mostly due to the predatory lending/ subprime financing crisis. This was a phenomenon across Bay Area markets. (Note that different price segments peaked in different years from 2006 to mid-2008.)


SF Appreciation 2000 to Top of Bubble

Bottom of Market to 2015,
2015 to Present


The first 4 years of the recovery which began in 2012 saw high home-price appreciation rates across the city. In 2015, the market shifted – there was considerable financial market volatility in late 2015 and the first half of 2016, a precipitous drop in IPO activity, and the high-tech boom cooled temporarily – and appreciation rates diverged, with less expensive homes significantly outpacing more expensive neighborhoods. One factor was that buyers were desperately searching for homes they could still afford.


SF Appreciation since 2015

Overall Dollar & Percentage Appreciation
2000 to Present


By total percentage appreciation since 2000, Sunset/Parkside ranks first. By actual dollar appreciation, the most expensive home prices increased the most, typically by well into seven figures.


SF Home Price Appreciation since 2000

San Francisco Condo Appreciation
2000 to Present, All Districts


Generally speaking, the SF condo market has not seen appreciation rates as high as for houses. Mostly, this has to do with increasing supply due to the boom in new condo construction, but it was also affected by factors in 2015-2016 already described above.


SF condo price appreciation since 2000

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Percentage of Sales over List Price
by Property Type

This chart illustrates the difference in demand by property type.
Houses have been the hottest segment in recent years.

SF Home Sales - Percentage Selling over List Price

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San Francisco New-Housing Trends

New construction, projects authorized, and affordable housing figures
based on SF Planning Department data recently released for 2017

San Francisco New Home Construction by Year

San Francisco New Housing Projects Authorized

San Francisco Affordable Housing Construction

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Additional reading for those interested: Paragon Main Reports Page

Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way. Information on neighborhoods not included in this report is readily available.

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics such as median sales prices, to some small degree.


© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

Will the Last Person Leaving the Bay Area Please Turn Out the Lights?




Will the Last Person Leaving the Bay Area
Please Turn Out the Lights?

Media Reports Sound the Death Knell of the Bay Area
– a Mite Prematurely

By Patrick Carlisle, Paragon Chief Market Analyst

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Quotes and headlines from selected media articles in March 2018


[According to a survey] “49 % of Bay Area residents were looking to move out.”

Business Insider

“San Francisco is such a boomtown that people are leaving in droves.”

Wall Street Journal

“Silicon Valley is over” “In the last three months of 2017, San Francisco lost
more residents to outward migration than any other city in the country.”


New York Times

“San Francisco is so expensive that more people are leaving than moving in

– and it could mean disaster for the nation’s tech capital.”


SFGate

That sounds really bad.

The sources of the data behind the above (and many more) articles: an online survey by a PR company; an analysis of traffic on a real estate website; the alleged cost of a U-Haul to Las Vegas; anecdotal opinions from a handful of venture capitalists on a mid-west bus tour; and new U.S. census data, more often than not selectively or misleadingly quoted to sound most ominous. (The WSJ article was by far the most fastidious with using hard data from reliable sources, though it was still alarmist in tone.)

Bad news, predictions of crashes, the arrogant finally getting their comeuppance: These stories grab eyeballs and get re-posted on social media. And much of the country finds the Bay Area insufferably smug – its wealth, home prices, unicorns, Google buses, 26-year-old billionaires, liberal politics, and much else – and if it is finally getting its just deserts, that is entertaining news. I get that: Sometimes, I find us insufferably smug myself. But let us investigate the issues a bit deeper.

First of all: Without argument, there are big economic and social challenges facing the Bay Area: high housing costs; high state income taxes; recent federal tax law changes; the hostility of the current federal government to foreign immigration; rising income inequality, poverty and homelessness; growing commute times and other quality of life issues; national and international concerns; and, yes, population migration trends too. This was covered in some detail in our recent report Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets. It is certainly true that places like Austin and Seattle, with much lower housing costs and no state income taxes, are actively luring our businesses to relocate or expand there, and doing so with some significant success.


**********


But, for a much more realistic illustration of what is going on in the Bay Area, here is some hard data from U.S. Census and CA Employment Development Department data released in March:

More people are NOT leaving San Francisco or the Bay Area than arriving. When you tally both domestic migration in and out (to and from other places in the U.S.), and foreign migration, more people are arriving than leaving. It is true than in the past 2 years, domestic net migration has shifted to a net loss, but that deficit is still overcome by the large positive in foreign immigration. Is the shift in domestic migration worrisome? Yes, if it continues to grow. But it is not cataclysmic in its current proportions, and there are further underlying factors to consider, which shall be discussed later in this report.


San Francisco County: Residents Leaving, New Residents Arriving
Net Domestic & Foreign, and Total Net Migration Numbers, per U.S. Census

The last column in each year tallies the net positive migration number

5-County San Francisco Metro Area Migration

The last column in each year tallies the net positive migration number


The Bay Area population is still growing both from migration and natural factors (births less deaths), albeit at slower rates than the torrid pace of previous years. As the WSJ admits in its article, SF and SF metro area populations are not shrinking: The SF Metro area population increased by .6% in the last 12 month period, as measured by the census through 7/1/17, which is one tenth of 1 percent lower than the .7% national rate. And a slower rate of growth than our recent population explosion is not a bad thing, since the Bay Area is bursting at the seams from growth without concomitant improvements in housing supply and infrastructure.


Long-Term Population Trends: San Francisco County

Short-Term Population Changes: 5-County SF Metro Area


The representation by Business Insider that 49% of residents were looking to move out is simply absurd. Really? Every other person? If people were fleeing or planning to flee in the proportions suggested, one would expect every other home in the Bay Area to sport a “for sale” sign, while the percentage of homeowners selling their homes is actually at historic lows: Less than 2% of SF house owners sold their homes in 2017. (The ratio was higher for condo owners, but still low at something over 4%.) I suppose it is possible that in the frenzy to get away, people are simply abandoning their homes instead of selling them.


New Listings Coming on Market: San Francisco County


Bay Area employment growth remains extremely strong. According to the CA Employment Development Department, for the six big Bay Area counties (the 5-county SF metro area plus Santa Clara County), no matter which month of 2017 one looks at, the year-over-year increase in Bay Area employed residents, ranged from 60,000 to 90,000. As the WSJ notes: “The broader Bay Area is the most robust metro region in the nation in terms of payroll job growth, according to the most recent regional analysis from the University of California-Los Angeles Anderson Forecast, an economic forecaster.”


Number of Employed Residents, per EDD
5-County SF Metro Area + Santa Clara County


Some other factors to consider:

Many of the people leaving inner Bay Area counties are moving to adjacent counties, such as Solano, Sonoma, Sacramento, Santa Cruz, San Joaquin, San Benito and Stanislaus Counties. Many of those people almost certainly continue to work within the metro area. To some degree, the Bay Area economic zone is expanding geographically, not declining.

The Bay Area over the past 7 years has been one of the greatest new-wealth creation machines in history. With the recent Dropbox IPO, it seems to be cranking into gear again – and there are still dozens of other local unicorns such as Uber, Pinterest, Airbnb, Palantir, with total values in the hundreds of billions of dollars – that could yet go public. Uber has already stated its desire to do so in the near future.

A substantial portion of those leaving the Bay area are retirees, cashing out on high home prices to move to less expensive locales, such as other counties in California, and Nevada, Arizona and Oregon. This is not a new phenomenon, as it has been going on for decades, though it may have accelerated in recent years, since cashing out has become so much more lucrative.

Most of those coming to the Bay Area are coming for new jobs, and the Bay Area remains a magnet for many of the best and the brightest around the world. Besides which, every year, thousands of Bay Area students graduate from schools like UC Berkeley, UCSF and Stanford, to take jobs locally as well. Economically, the Bay Area is trading many residents who are, to a large degree, checking out of the economy for people in the prime of their working lives.

Millions of square feet of new commercial office space continue to be snapped up as soon as they come on market, even before the buildings are finished, and the only possible reasons are new businesses arriving and existing businesses expanding, both of which are fueled by continued hiring.

The Bay Area certainly has substantial challenges to face and it is not sure it will overcome its problems. And it is true that people and businesses are moving out in greater numbers than any time since 2002. But, on the other hand, start-ups continue to start up by the hundreds, local business continue to expand, and the Bay Area undoubtedly remains one of the most innovative and dynamic economies in the world. And despite all its faults and problems, it is still, in my opinion, one of the great metropolitan areas and best places to live on the planet.

Other reports you might find interesting:

Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets

Changing California Migration Trends

30+ Years of Bay Area Real Estate Cycles

Survey of Bay Area Real Estate Markets

All Paragon reports can be found here

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This article was first published on March 26, 2018.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions.


© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group